State of the Meta – Extended Wave 6

Following my State of the Meta on Wave 6 Hyperspace, here is the Extended version. There will be some repetition in the intro as well as in the general section, so please “skim” as needed if you already read the Hyperspace version. The podcast version can be found here

In the following, I will in general only look data from larger tournaments (40+ player Extended – follow the link to see the list of tournaments used)
The bulk of the data comes from GSP’s four Space Jam tournaments, but there is also data from LVO, Sith Taker Open, Sith Taker Cup, and 4 other events. In total, this is just over 1200 lists.

As this is an analysis piece, I will try my best to stick as close as possible to the data and avoid any personal opinion. Whenever I feel that I must inject an opinion not totally founded in data I will make sure to make an #opinion-warning.

Note: When listing percentages they refer to either faction representation (how many % of lists in that faction is this and this archetype or has that specific pilot) or average performance as percentile (100% meaning it placed first at all events it participated in, 50% being average). For the users of advancedtargeting.computer note that this is the inverse of the “Avg. Swiss rank” stat. In all things higher is better
In some situation you might see reference to “pp” (Percentage Points). This is a relative measure to signify a change from the baseline of a certain amount of percentage points. For instance: O-66 has an average performance of 62.5% – but with DRK-1 Probe Droids, this performs increases to 71.3%. This is an increase of +8.8pp.

General

Bid

The bid in Extended has dropped slightly from 2.8 to 2.5 between Wave 5 and Wave 6. The deep bids are driven by i6 – about 32% of lists have a i6 in them (down from 38% in Wave 5) – but there are also significant bidding at i5.

At i6 you need a 6 point bid to move last in 9 of 10 games (down from 8 in Wave 5), and a 10 point bid to move last in 19 of 20 games (down from 13 in Wave 5). If you want to move last in 99 of 100 games, you will need a bid of 17 (down from 20). So a significant part of the average bid dropping is actually occuring at i6.

At i5 the point of diminishing returns for bids seems to be around 5 points. Here you reach 61% chance of moving last – where as you with no bid move last in just 37% of the games. At 11 points you can get to around 65%, with only fractions of percent improvements gained from bidding deeper.

The numbers factor in the likely matchups – if they are “i6” numbers they assume you have an i6-pilot in the list. So in a lot of cases (~67%) you will move last no matter your bid – simply because you have an i6-pilot, while your opponent doesn’t. It also includes the fact that if you both bring lists with the same bid, there is a 50% chance you will move last.

List size

While Extended lists remain stable in size at 3.9 ships, Hyperspace lists increases in size from 3.8 in Wave 5 to 4.2 in Wave 6. Digging a bit deeper, the details on the split of list sizes can be seen below. The number in parenthesis is the Wave 5 number.

#ships	Hyperspace	Extended
2	9.8% (9.5%)	10.4% (8.0%)
3	19.6% (39.5%)	36.2% (38.2%)
4	36.9% (31.4%)	27.1% (30.1%)
5	20.6% (8.6%)	14.3% (13.0%)
6	4.0% (4.8%)	5.1% (4.5%)
7	4.0% (4.5%)	3.5% (3.2%)
8	5.0% (1.6%)	3.5% (3.0%)

In Wave 5 there was only small differences between Hyperspace and Extended with regards to split of list sizes. This is clearly no longer the case. Extended has seen slight reductions in 3- and 4-ship lists, while all other sizes have slightly increased. Hyperspace is very different now though.

Faction Representation

Note that this data is for “All” – not just for the larger tournaments, nor just for Extended. I will keep the illustration but will base the analysis on the actual numbers for Large Extended tournaments. The relevant points are the last 6 data points (February to July). Please ignore the last data point (July) which has very limited data at the time of writing.

Looking over the total of Wave 6, the factions are split like this:

1. Scum and Villainy: 22.7%
2. Galactic Empire: 20.9%
3. Rebel Alliance: 15.3%
4. Resistance: 11.5%
5. Galactic Republic: 10.9%
6. First Order: 10.4%
7. Separatist Alliance: 8.4%

Comparing to the chart above, you can see it is somewhat accurate, though the popularity of First Order in Hyperspace has been strong enough to push it several spots higher overall.

Scum has exploded in popularity, with Empire recovering from it slump in Wave 5.

Performance

As with Representation, this data is for all tournaments and cross-format. Note that the chart is zoomed, rather than showing 0-100, it shows 45-70.

Very up and down for most factions, which also shows that most of the data from the early part of the wave is Hyperspace, and then there is a switch to Extended near the end. As it is, the average performance for the Wave in Large Extended tournaments are:

1. Separatist Alliance: 55.8%
2. Scum and Villainy: 54.9%
3. Galactic Empire: 50.1%
4. Resistance: 49.1%
5. First Order: 48.4%
6. Galactic Republic: 45.9%
7. Rebel Alliance: 45.6%

Immediately, we see that the field is a lot closer than in the analysis of Wave 6 Hyperspace, the major difference being that Empire is much stronger than in Hyperspace – as well as Resistance and First Order being weaker. Comparing the numbers directly does not necessarily make sense due to incompleteness of list data for Hyperspace forcing a higher than 50% average. Relative positioning will have to do.

Separatists are also on top in Extended

Like in Hyperspace, and for the second consecutive wave, the Roger Roger’s take the top spot. Some evolution has occurred since the last time, most notably the inclusion of Hyena-bombers in the lists and the complete abscence of Nantex success.

2 Hyena/6 vultures: By far the most common CIS archetype and responsible for the largest chunk of CIS lists out there. It contains two Hyena’s with Plasma Torps and 6 vultures, 3 of them with Discord missiles – and Struts to taste. This archetype has an average performance of 68.7% (Based on 12 lists).

Sear Swarm: Sear (TA-175) + 7 vultures w/ 3 discords. Essentially the winning list from Wave 5 – now performing at 69.3% (9 lists)

Feethan Swarm: A Feethan autopilot along with 0-2 Techno Union bombers and 2-7 Vultures. Across the archetype, it scores 60,3%. (13 lists). One variant, the Feethan (TA-175/Title) + 7 Vultures (3 with Discords) scores 75.4%, but only has 5 entries.

… and honorable mention goes to 6 Hyena’s with Prox mines – scoring 80.8% average performance, but not included on the list due to small sample size (5 lists)

Notable Pilots & Upgrades:

• Trade Federation Drone – 60.0%: The Roger Rogering workhorse of the CIS is slightly less common in Extended than in Hyperspace, but is still in 71.2% of CIS lists. Struts are present on 74% of these and improve performance slightly (+1.5pp). Discords more significantly (+3.7pp). Energy-shell charges are still rather common (20,6% of Drones) – but their performance is unimpressive (-15.1pp)
• Techno Union Bomber – 67.2%: In just over a third of CIS lists, the Techno Union bomber is the best performing CIS ship. Struts seems to make little difference, with Prox Mines (+6.9pp) and Plasma Torpedoes (+1.5pp) being the most commonly carried munition. DRK-1 Probe Droids are occasionally seen but does not seem worth it (-12.4pp). Delayed Fuses performs well (+6.6pp) as does Discord Missiles (+16.1pp). It should be noted that there are some noise in the data here as the most effective loadout is Plasma Torps without struts (+11.7pp), while Plasma Torps WITH struts are at -10.1pp. So study the data before you make decisions based on the above.
• General Grievous – 49.5%: Almost a fourth of CIS lists bring Grievous, mostly in 3 and 4 ships lists. As his performance shows, these lists are not doing that well.
• Feethan Ottraw Autopilot – 58.7%: 14% of CIS lists use the Feethan – almost always with TA-175.
• Captain Sear – 63.6%: Slight rarer (13%), Sear scores highest of the Belbullabs. TA-175 is the most popular and effective Tactical Relay (+5.7pp) – while Kraken (used 30% of the time) is substantially worse (-12.8pp)
• … and the Nantex is nowhere to be seen. Chertek is in 1 of 10 lists, scoring just 32.6% – with the Stalgasin Hive Guard is even rarer, but scores 48.5%
• Kraken vs TA-175 is interesting to watch. Kraken (18 instances, 48.4%) is slightly worse than TA-175 (28 instances, 57.4%) – but Kraken seems to outperform TA-175 in lists with fewer ships, though small sample sizes make this less of a certainty.
• Discord Missiles – 63.4%: Worth noting here is that if you look at “Performance by instances in lists” – you can see that 2 Discord Missiles (+2.5pp) are significantly better than 1 (-16.7pp). Most lists bring 3 though (+0.2pp) – but this may suggest that there are diminishing returns in bringing the 3rd missile.

Scum is in close second

While Separatists in #1 is the least played faction, Scum is the most popular. This popularity makes it even more impressive that Scum scores so high, as we frequently see that high popularity usually means worse average performance as the bandwagon effect brings less experienced players to the faction.
Notable for Scum is the relatively high number of frequently played lists. This is contrast to some of the other factions that may have frequently used pieces, but they are combined in many different ways.

Boba / Koshka: A few different variants – their main difference being the choice of bombs and sometimes Talent selection. Boba / Koshka scores 63.9%. Bid is between 0 and 5 points.

Boba / Fenn: Equally popular to Boba / Koshka, but with a much bigger bid – up to 19 points with an average bid of 13.6. Scores 61.3%.

Boba / Dengar: Yet another Boba squad, this time paired with Dengar. Scoring a solid 74.9% – even with a rather high representation despite having emerged rather late in the wave. (13 entries, about 5% of all Scum squads). A few variants have been played with the most noticeable difference being upgrades on Dengar. One option is the Punishing One title and a Shield Upgrade, but the more popular one is Proton Torps and L3-37.
#opinionwarning: It is noteworthy though that the squad’s performance has dropped over time. Enno brought it to Space Jam #1 and finished Top 8. In the next one, he got to top 4, while Timo Raabe (playing the Torp version) won. In the 3rd Space Jam, 6 people brought it but most of them finished 4-2 outside the cut. In the final Space Jam, 3 people brought the list but all finished outside the cut. It may be a coincidence, but it may also be the loss of the “surprise factor” that took the list down from “Great” to “Good”. If we exclude the two first Space Jam’s, the list still scores a solid 68.1% with 10 entries, despite one of those entries being a 0-2 drop. So perhaps it’s fairer to say that it went from “Greatest” to “Great” 🙂

4 Spacers & Double Zealous: With a solid 70,0% performance, this list contains 4 Cartel Spacers (2 with Ion Cannon, 2 with Tractor beams) and 2 Zealous Recruits. Featuring 5 cuts in 9 entries is impressive, though 4 of these (famously) was Akhter Khan making top 4 three times and top 16 once over the four Space Jams.

Boba / Emon: The less popular double Firespray list has still seen quite a lot of play (but not with a lot of succes) performing at 50.0%

Quad Fangs: Four Fangs – either Fenn+3 Zealous or 4 Skull Squadrons averages 65.6%. Unlike in Hyperspace, the 4 Skulls comes out on top – both in popularity and effectiveness, though the effectiveness may be too close to call.

Torkil Swarm: Torkil Mux (w/ title) + Cpt. Seevor and 3 Cartel Marauders is a well-known piece that we also saw in Wave 5, where it finished Top 4 at Worlds. While still making the occasional cut, the average performance is down to 57.9%

Notable Pilots & Upgrades:

• Boba Fett – 60.7%: In over a third of Scum lists, Boba is by far the most played pilot in the faction – which likely actually pulls down his average. The Slave 1 title and Maul is almost stapled to him, but many other upgrades are used; Contraband Cybernetics and Fearless are in just over half the load-outs and provides small benefits. Hull/Shield Upgrades and either Proton Bombs or Seismic Charges are likewise all popular, and all provide substantial benefit. Prox Mines and Perceptive co-pilot are linked negatively to performance, taking up valuable slots that are better used for Proton Bombs/Seismic Charges and Maul respectively. For the full story – look at Boba’s pilot page
• Fenn Rau – 53.2%: Fenn’s average performance is much less impressive – probably because more experiments have been done with him. Some are successful (Like Boba/Fenn or Fenn+3 Zealous) – but many are not. Fenn is most frequently equipped with Fearless (+0.6pp) or Outmaneuver (-6.3)
• Dengar – 56.4%: Over a tenth of all Scum lists have Dengar in them. He found success alongside Boba, but attempts to fly him alongside Fenn or Guri have not gone as well. For a discussion of his upgrades, see the Boba/Dengar list description above, or study his pilot page. I must warn, however, that the variance in Dengar results is extremely high as a result of so many people trying so many things. This means that it is hard to trust it that much. As a result, we see that the Dengar with the title scores better (+4.1pp) than the Proton Torpedo variant (-1.1pp). This may or may not be representative of what Dengar used broadly is about, or it may be quirks of statistics.
• Guri – 47.5%: Guri is in 1 of 10 Scum lists. She has most frequently been flown alongside Dengar or Fenn Rau (Together accounting for more than half of her entries).
  Advanced Sensors (+2.8pp) is nearly stapled to her – with Outmaneuver (+4.5pp) and Virago (+0.1pp) also being very common. Shield Upgrade (+11.3pp), Afterburners (+8.6pp), Stealth Device (-0.7pp) and Lone Wolf (+10.5pp) are also somewhat common. Looking at aggregated loadouts, it seems as “slimmer” builds are more common, but the heavier builds are more effective.
• Koshka Frost – 63.1%: In just under 10% of Scum lists we find Koshka. Most of these are alongside Boba (24 of 26 entries)
  #Opinionwarning: It may be that Koshka is more “Great by association” than on her own.
• Cartel Spacer – 71.6%: An extreme performance for sure. Based on 90 instances of the humble (?) Cartel Spacer across 23 entries, the Cartel Spacer makes quite a splash. Upgrade choices are split almost evenly between Autoblasters (+16.9pp), Tractor Beam (-3.7pp) and Ion Cannon (-4.1pp) with a little leftover for flying them naked (-22.9pp).
• Zealous Recruit – 60.7%
• Skull Squadron Pilot – 61.1%
• Captain Seevor – 52.2%: Though sometimes used with either Crack Shot or Snap Shot, Seevor performs best without upgrades (+2.4pp).

Empire takes third

Like in Wave 5, Empire comes in as the third best faction. With almost 21% representation, it is also a very popular faction, but with much fewer “fixed” lists than the slightly more popular Scum.

Oli Aces – 61.8%: Vader (Afterburners and either Fire-Control System or Passive Sensors), Whisper (Passive Sensors and 5th Brother) and Grand Inquisitor is still doing well making the cut in 8 of 18 entries. The choice between Fire-Control System and Passive Sensors for the list is not clear cut – though the overwhelming majority (15 of 18) takes Passive Sensors.

Sloane Reaper / 2 Interceptors / 4 TIEs – 62.9%: All initiative 1 – with the only upgrade being Sloane on the Scariff Base Reaper, this squad has seen some success, though has only made the cut in 1 of 7 entries.

Vader / Duchess / Soontir – 41.1%: Also 7 entries and 1 cut, but much worse performance overall.

Notable Pilots & Upgrades:

• Darth Vader – 51.6%: Vader is in 42.2% of Imperial lists. Afterburners is almost stapled on (+1.1pp), but Fire-Control System is slightly more popular when looking across all lists (-0.5pp) and Passive Sensors is more effective (+2.2pp)
• Soontir Fel – 48.3%: Soontir is in about a quarter of all Imperial lists, most frequently with Predator (-8.9pp), though Crack Shot (+12.2pp) fares better. Targeting Computer (+9.8pp) is also quite common.
• Whisper – 55.5%: 9 of 10 Whispers has Fifth Brother gunner equipped (+0.2pp), while 8 of 10 has Passive Sensors (-0.3pp). Stealth Device also shows promise (+6.8pp) as does Juke (+5.0pp)
• Grand Inquisitor – 53.9%: Most often run naked (+4.6pp)
• Fifth Brother – 47.2%: About 1 in 6 lists have Fifth Brother in them. Homing Missiles are on the vast majority of them (+1.5pp). About 3 of 4 have something in the sensor slot, either Passive Sensors (-0.7pp) or Fire-Control System (+6.4pp)
• Colonel Jendon – 51.8%: Krennic (+4pp) or Palpatine (+10.0pp) works well. While we begin to dip into Small Sample Size territory, it seems the old Hatchetman (Vader/Vynder/Jendon) is still viable (60.7%) – and a few builds with 3 Inquisitors (named or generic) or 2 Inquisitors and Soontir also shows teeth.
• Echo – 50.2%: Fifth Brother (+3.2pp) and Passive Sensors (+2.3pp) works well.
• Duchess – 42.3%: Not an impressive performance. Shield Upgrade (+11.6pp) works well.
• Inquisitor – 50.6%: Upgrade selection seems important, as they perform poorly naked (-9.1pp). There seems to be no universal pattern though that does not require going deep into small-sample-size-territory.

Resistance in the middle

With 11.5% representation, Resistance is the first faction with below-average performance. Since wave 5 they have improved slightly though. Not a whole lot of lists have significant numbers though, so focus will more be on pilots.

Rey/Tallie/Zizi – 54.7%: One of a few Rey + 2 A-wings lists, the version with Tallie and Zizi is the most popular and also the most effective. Rey has Rose, Finn & Korr Sella as well as the title. Usually also a shield upgrade, and potentially some other upgrades. The A’s run Heroic/Crack/Optics.
A variant that replaces Tallie with Cova scores 59.4%, but has too few entries for me to include it beyond this honorable mention.

5A – 48.7%: A long-standing archetype that has managed to remain in contention and evolve slightly over time. There are a few configurations of pilots, but after the general availability of the Hotshots & Aces pack, Zizi, Greer & Ronith is just about always there. The last two spots are usually a Blue Sqd Recruit as well as either Tallie, Zari or another Blue Sqd Recruit. As an archetype, 5A has one of the highest level of variance (+/- 31.5%) in the meta currently, whether that is because it takes some experience to fly or because it is matchup dependent would require a deeper analysis – but (#opinionwarning) I believe it is the skill/experience factor. To illustrate this: Of the 19 entries of 5A lists, 5 of them made cut. That is a 26% cutrate – which is quite good. But there were also 5 that finished with 0 or 1 wins in swiss (in a 6 round tournament).
With that being said – looking at upgrades on the succesful lists, it seems the current iteration that is considered “Best” is Zizi/Greer/Ronith/Blue with Heroic/Optics – and then Zari with just Intimidation.

Notable Pilots & Upgrades:

• Zizi Tlo – 49.1%: The darling of the Resistance, Zizi is in 41.5% of Resistance lists. Heroic/Optics is baseline on her and Crack Shot seems to make her slightly better (+1.5pp)
• Tallisan Lintra – 49.7%: While having lost some popularity, Tallie is still in over a quarter of lists. Upgrade performance is similar to Zizi, with Crack Shot standing out a bit more (+7.7pp)
• Finn – 56.9%: Just under 1 in 5 lists have Finn. Heroic is present on every single one, and Perceptive Co-pilot is on almost all of them. Adding Optics (-12.6pp) or Pattern Analyzer (-11.9pp) does not yield positive results in the data. Note that the Pattern Analyzer only has a very low sample size, but the optics data is based on 14 lists.
• Cova Nell – 56.1%: With similar representation to Finn, Cova is never seen without Leia Crew. Heroic is also very common (+1.4pp) as is R4 Astromech (-0.3pp). Together these three are +2.4pp (meaning that R4 is brought down in score by players who brought R4, but did not bring Heroic).
• Blue Squadron Recruit – 44.8%: Rarely seen outside 5A.
• Nien Numb – 43.0%: Usually fielded with Heroic and Pattern Analyzer and sometimes Black One. The sample size is limited, but the data does suggest that flying Nien without Pattern Analyzer is not as bad an idea as “common wisdom” would suggest.
• Jessika Pava – 48.6%
• Red Squadron Expert – 59.6%
• Zari Bangel – 55.3%: As noted in the 5A archetype discussion above, Intimidation has seen a lot of success on Zari (+26.1pp)
• Heroic – 50.1%: Heroic has the distinction of being the second most played upgrade card in X-wing – not just in the Resistance faction but across all lists (#1 is Crack Shot).
  Due to the way Heroic works, I decided to break it down on chassis:
  • RZ-2 A-wing: 209 of 224 – 48.7%
  • T-70 X-wing: 100 of 166 – 51.0% (Red Squadron Expert alone scores 58.8%)
  • Resistance Transport: 23 of 32 – 57.5% (All Cova)
  • Resistance Transport Pod: 30 of 49 – 53.8% (27 of the 30 is Finn)

First Order is fifth

First Order is still increasing in popularity compared to Wave 5, but is still significantly less in Extended compared to Hyperspace. Very few settled lists though – but a lot of experimentation.

Five Zeta – 71.0%: The only real First Order list with any numbers behind it, the five Zeta SF’s all have Passive sensors, and then either Homing or Cluster missiles. If the Resistance 5A is high-variance – then the Five Zeta’s are the opposite: very stable. Only 1 in 7 made the cut – but every one finished in the top half of the field. So this looks like a classic High Floor / Low Ceiling list (performance-wise). Variants of this are 5 Omega Sqd SF’s (with Optics and Fanatical), but this performs worse (49.0%). Another alternative is Backdraft+4 Omega’s (Optics/Crack shot) – which shows a lot of promise but have too few entries to include.

Triple Silencer – 62.9%: About 1 in 12 First Order list falls into this category. Blackout is almost always there – the rest typically being a combination of Kylo, First Order Test Pilots or Sienar Jamus Engineers. The bid averages at 4 points, but is in the 1-7 point range.

As an honorable mention – we have the Focho – the 8 Epsilon Sqd Cadet. The sample size is just a tad too low for me to include it – but with 5 entries currently, the average performance is 70.8%

Notable Pilots & Upgrades:

• Kylo Ren – 46.4%: Kylo is in over half of the FO lists. Most common fielded without upgrades (+3.0pp). About a third run Advanced Optics (-2.9pp). Proton Torpedoes works well (+9.2pp)
• Quickdraw – 40.9%: Quickdraw is always used with Special Forces Gunner and in 3/4 of the cases Fire-Control System (+0.9pp). These two together and nothing else performs really well (+29.8%)
• Zeta Squadron Survivor – 59.7%: There are basically 5 ways to kit out the Zeta. It can be naked (+14.8pp), have just Optics (-7.9pp) or have Passive Sensors and either Homing (+13.1pp), Cluster (+9pp) or Concussion (-28.9pp).
• Major Vonreg – 43.8%: Almost 1 in 5 lists have Vonreg. His performance has a very large variance. Daredevil (+7.3pp) seems to work well, while other upgrades seem detrimental. Having just Daredevil is +11.7pp.
• Epsilon Squadron Cadet – 67.0%: About 1 in 6 lists feature the First Order workhorse. Almost always naked (+1.0pp), but sometimes with Optics (-14.0pp)
• Holo – 44.8%: Almost as popular as Vonreg, Holo is flown in many configurations. As with Vonreg, too many upgrades seem detrimental to performance. Proud Tradition (+1.2pp) seems to be the most common talent choice.
• Blackout – 46.3%: Blackout uses Fanatical (+0.2pp), Optics (+6.2pp), Outmaneuver (+6.2pp) and Trick Shot (-6.3pp)
• Fanatical – 40.5%: While significantly below the faction average, Fanatical becomes significantly better when combined with Advanced Optics (+8.8pp)
• Proud Tradition – 45.2%

Republic is second last

Republic’s popularity has been waning since the middle of Wave 5 – and after the last points change this tendency has continued. Performance has dropped even harder.

Obi/Plo/Ric – 60.7%: A few variant exists, but generally 7B+R2 on the two Jedi’s and Sense on Obi and a naked Ric + a 5 point bid is the most succesful variant. Other variants drops Sense for some upgrades on Ric

Ani/Mace/Obi – 33.5%: Most commonly 3 Jedi’s with CLT, though a few has 7B on Anakin. Astromechs are also mixed, but many use R5, some use R2. Some of the variants have Sense in them. Bid is 0-11 points.

Ani/Obi/Plo – 35.0%: Most commonly 7B on Anakin and CLT on the others. In some cases, Obi gets the 7B or even both him and Plo.

Jedi + 3 ARCs – 54.2%: Typically Obi or Mace – either CLT or 7B + 3 generic Arcs (both 104th and Squad Seven have been seen). The CLT variants use the saved points to either upgrade to Squad Seven’s with Dedicated or add shield upgrades to the 104th. There is no clear tendency for one of these versions to perform better than the other.

Notable Pilots & Upgrades:

• Obi-Wan Kenobi – 43.7%: 57% of Republic lists have Obi. Choice of configuration is about 50/50 – with 7B (+2.8pp) being slightly better than CLT (-1.0pp). Other common upgrades are Sense (+3.9pp), R2 Astro (+7.0pp). The combination of 7B, R2 & Sense is +24.5pp
• Plo Koon – 57.5%: In about 1/4 lists. 7B is more popular and effective (+10.1pp) than CLT (-11.0pp). R2 Astro (+27.4pp) performs better than C1-10P (-9,5pp)
• Anakin (Aethersprite) – 42.1%: Similar representation to Plo. Anakin flies 7B (+0.4pp) in 3/4 of cases – but CLT (-1.2pp) is also seen. R2 is effective (+9.7pp), but R5 also works (+1.1pp).
• Ric Olié – 53.3%: In 20% of lists. Ric works best naked (+22.3pp), but Fire-Control System (+6.9pp) also seems to work well. Daredevil (-14,7pp), R2 Astro (-6.9pp), R4 Astro (-15.0pp) and Outmaneuver (-6.5pp) seems ineffective.
• Gold Squadron Trooper – 49.7%: 18% of lists. Works best without upgrades (+5.9pp), though in 17% of cases some upgrades are on them anyway.
• Wolffe – 46.3%: Works best without upgrades (+11.0pp)
• Mace Windu – 48.0%: 60% with 7B (+3.7pp), 40% with CLT (-5.8pp). R4 Astromech seems to work well (+11.8pp), while Heightened Perception (-9.7pp) doesn’t.
• Broadside – 39.2%: Always flown with Ion Cannon Turret, sometimes with a Hull Upgrade (+4.6pp). R4 Astro (+4.6pp) works as well – but other upgrades, especially bombs seems to be counterproductive.

Rebel last – again and again

While still popular (3rd overall, 15.1%) – Rebel performance is for the third consequentive time at the bottom of the list. As with all the “struggling” factions, there are not a lot of settled lists.

Rebel Beef – 49.4%: Classic 4-ship rebels. Some combination of Braylen, Ten, Jake, Arvel, Wedge, Thane and sometimes a U-wing (or just 4U). Nothing stands out as a clear pattern – performance is all over the place. (High standard deviation)

Wedge/Braylen/Jake/Blount/Bandit – 55.3%: Proven by DT in last Worlds Championship, the squad is slightly better than average with a single cut in 8 entries.

XEE – 55.9%: Generally Luke with two Rogue Squadron escorts, though on occasion Wedge instead. Proton Torpedoes common on the E-wings along with R3 Astros. 2 cut in 7 entries.

Notable Pilots & Upgrades:

• Wedge Antilles – 49.0%: Wedge is not as auto-include as previously, but still feature in 40% of the Rebel lists. Wedge works best without upgrades (+13.7pp) or with Crack Shot (+5.0pp) only.
• Jake Farell – 44.2%: Represented in about a quarter of all lists, Jake have seen success with both Crack Shot (+3.4pp) and Predator (+8.1pp).
• Braylen Stramm – 46.7%: Braylen is still popular (20% of lists). Stabilized S-foils brings only a slight benefit (+1.7pp).
• Ten Numb – 50.0%: Slightly less popular than Braylen, Ten has Stabilized S-foils in 3/4 of cases, but it doesn’t seem to do a whole lot for him (-3.0pp). In conjunction with a Crack Shot it’s +6pp though – so likely there are just too many variations of upgrades to get a good “signal”.
• Luke Skywalker – 40.6%: In about 1/6 squads, Luke is frequently flown with Proton Torpedoes (+10.6pp) or naked (+6.6pp). Afterburners also works well (+18.9pp). As for the Astromech slot, R2-D2 (-13.8pp) does worse than R2 (+5.7pp).

Generic Upgrades

Before the summary, I have a few generic upgrades I would like to look into. Most of this goes close to #opinionwarning – so keep that in mind. To avoid this article getting too much longer, I will try to keep this brief:

Passive Sensors – 55.9%: Most common on i2 ships – which is also where they seem to make the most difference from the pilot baseline. The other side of the coin is that over 20% of the usage of the card is on Darth Vader, while Whisper accounts for almost the same. In total, the Phantoms (Whisper, Echo, Sigma Sqd. Ace) accounts for 30% of the use of Passive Sensors. If you add the last (significant) Imperial “ace”-user (Fifth Brother, 8%) to this, about 60% of the use of Passive Sensors is on Imperial I4-6 – half of this on ships that wouldn’t otherwise have the ability to take locks.

Crack Shot – 51.7%: Crack Shot has by many been called one of the best upgrades in the game from a value perspective. It is, by quite a margin, the most commonly used upgrade in the game. Another interesting consideration, however, is how important initiative is on the pilot that equips it. I’ve disregarded i1 and i2 pilot here since they only rarely have a talent slot. Looking at the remaining data, it does seem to suggest that crack shot is most effective on i3 ship – i.e. mostly the generics with a talent slot. While more analysis would certainly be required to “prove” that Crack Shot is magically better at lower initiative and understand the reasons for this, I do take one thing away from this: It is clearly not as hard to get bullseye on lower initiatives as some people think.

Hull Upgrade & Shield Upgrade: Scoring 49.4% and 50.7%, these two upgrades seem close enough to average to consider them “probably balanced”. But they are variable costed, so lets try to break this down:

Agility	Hull Upgrade	Shield Upgrade
0	60.0%	52.6%
1	46.8%	48.2%
2	55.2%	55.0%
3	25.9%	44.7%

As clearly shown, both upgrades are better value at agility 0 and 2.
I should note that both are most common on agility 2 ship, followed by 1, then 3. Hull Upgrade’s are comparatively more popular on 0-2 agility ships, while Shield Upgrade’s are more popular on agility 3 ships.

But what about half-point breakpoints?
A ship that normally has an even number of health (hull+shields) gains the additional benefit from a hull or shield upgrade that they move the half-point threshold. But is that effect large enough to be statistically meaningful?
The answer is YES. In cases where an even-health ships takes either upgrade, the average performance is 52.7% vs 44.5% for the odd-health ships.
To confirm this was not just because these ships were inherently better due to some strange coincidence, I ran a general query, that showed that the normal situation (without accounting for hull and shields upgrades) is that ships with odd-health performs slightly better (53.3% vs 50.5%) – which, if you think about it, confirms the hypothesis that it’s an advantage to have an odd amount of health. Note that the numbers do not average out to 50% because we are looking at pilots, not lists. This analysis IS meta-dependent, but it at least shows that in the current meta, there IS an effect.

Summary

As many people seem to like ranked lists of what is best – I have summarized all the mentioned data below. Not that this is AVERAGE performance. A good list can have a bad average performance if it has a higher skill cap.

Mentioned lists, sorted by best first, Extended:

1. Boba / Dengar (Scum) – 74.9%
2. Five Zeta (First Order) – 71.0%
3. 4 Spacers & Double Zealous (Scum) – 70.0%
4. Sear Swarm (CIS) – 69,3%
5. 2 Hyena/6 vultures (CIS) – 68.7%
6. Quad Fangs (Scum) – 65.6%
7. Boba / Koshka (Scum) – 63.9%
8. Triple Silencer (First Order) – 62.9%
9. Sloane Reaper / 2 Interceptors / 4 TIEs (Empire) – 62.9%
10. Oli Aces (Empire) – 61.8%
11. Boba / Fenn (Scum) – 61.3%
12. Obi/Plo/Ric (Republic) – 60.7%
13. Feethan Swarm (CIS) – 60.3%
14. Torkil Swarm (Scum) – 57.9%
15. XEE (Rebel) – 55.9%
16. Wedge/Braylen/Jake/Blount/Bandit (Rebel) – 55.3%
17. Rey/Tallie/Zizi (Resistance) – 54.7%
18. Jedi + 3 ARCs (Republic) – 54.2%
19. Boba / Emon (Scum) – 50.0%
20. Rebel Beef (Rebel) – 49.4%
21. 5A (Resistance) – 48.7%
22. Vader / Duchess / Soontir (Empire) – 41.1%
23. Ani/Obi/Plo (Republic) – 35.0%
24. Ani/Mace/Obi (Republic)- 33.5%

Mentioned Pilots, sorted by best first, Extended:

1. Cartel Spacer (Scum) – 71.6%
2. Techno Union Bomber (CIS) – 67.2%
3. Epsilon Squadron Cadet (First Order) – 67.0%
4. Captain Sear (CIS) – 63.6%
5. Koshka Frost (Scum) – 63.1%
6. Skull Squadron Pilot (Scum) – 61.1%
7. Boba Fett (Scum) – 60.7%
8. Zealous Recruit (Scum) – 60.7%
9. Trade Federation Drone (CIS) – 60.0%
10. Zeta Squadron Survivor (First Order) – 59.7%
11. Red Squadron Expert (Resistance) – 59.6%
12. Feethan Ottraw Autopilot (CIS) – 58.7%
13. Plo Koon (Republic) – 57.5%
14. Finn (Resistance) – 56.9%
15. Dengar (Scum) – 56.4%
16. Cova Nell (Resistance) – 56.1%
17. Whisper (Empire) – 55.5%
18. Zari Bangel (Resistance) – 55.3%
19. Grand Inquisitor (Empire) – 53.9%
20. Ric Olié (Republic) – 53.3%
21. Fenn Rau (Scum) – 53.2%
22. Captain Seevor (Scum) – 52.2%
23. Colonel Jendon (Empire) – 51.8%
24. Darth Vader (Empire) – 51.6%
25. Inquisitor (Empire) – 50.6%
26. Echo (Empire) – 50.2%
27. Ten Numb (Rebel) – 50.0%
28. Gold Squadron Trooper (Republic) – 49.7%
29. General Grievous (CIS) – 49.5%
30. Tallisan Lintra (Resistance) – 49.7%
31. Zizi Tlo (Resistance) – 49.1%
32. Wedge Antilles (Rebels) – 49.0%
33. Jessika Pava (Resistance) – 48.6%
34. Soontir Fel (Empire) – 48.3%
35. Mace Windu (Republic) – 48.0%
36. Guri (Scum) – 47.5%
37. Fifth Brother (Empire) – 47.2%
38. Braylen Stramm (Rebel) – 46.7%
39. Kylo Ren (First Order) – 46.4%
40. Blackout (First Order) – 46.3%
41. Wolffe (Republic) – 46.3%
42. Blue Squadron Recruit (Resistance) – 44.8%
43. Holo (First Order) – 44.8%
44. Jake Farell (Rebels) – 44.2%
45. Major Vonreg (First Order) – 43.8%
46. Obi-Wan Kenobi (Republic) – 43.7%
47. Nien Numb (Resistance) – 43.0%
48. Duchess (Empire) – 42.3%
49. Anakin (Aethersprite – Republic) – 42.1%
50. Luke Skywalker (Rebel) – 40.6%
51. Broadside (Republic) – 39.2%

Final Words

I hope you have found all this useful. If you have (civil) comments, questions or suggestions please put them below. I am particular interested in hearing whether you liked the addition of the slightly speculative “Generic” section.
If you want to see pilot stats for the pilots you can find them here.
The details for the bidding data can be found here